Risk sentiment deteriorated Friday as a surprise decline in U.S. payrolls collided with a sharp oil rally tied to escalating Middle East tensions, reviving stagflation concerns and sending equities lower.
Risk sentiment deteriorated Friday as a surprise decline in U.S. payrolls collided with a sharp oil rally tied to escalating Middle East tensions, reviving stagflation concerns and sending equities lower. Cyclicals and financials lagged, chipmakers sold off, and crypto weakened, while short-duration Treasuries outperformed as traders modestly raised expectations for eventual Fed easing.
Key Headlines & Market Movers:
Weak U.S. Jobs Report Fuels Growth Concerns: February payrolls unexpectedly fell and unemployment edged higher, broadening evidence of labor-market cooling beyond temporary factors like strikes and weather; the data complicates the Fed’s path, with policymakers weighing softening growth against still-elevated inflation risks.
Oil Surge Drives Inflation Anxiety and Risk Aversion: Crude surged above $90 as the Middle East conflict disrupted energy flows and tanker traffic, intensifying worries about renewed price pressures and acting as a drag on equities, with strategists highlighting rising stagflation risks if higher energy costs persist.
Credit and Tech Pressures Weigh on Equities: Financials slid amid renewed scrutiny of private credit after BlackRock limited withdrawals from a fund, while chipmakers were hit by news Oracle and OpenAI scrapped a Texas data-center expansion; elsewhere, Marvell rallied on strong AI-driven demand while Gap fell on weaker results.
S&P 500 Sector Performance
Looking Ahead
Markets will focus on whether geopolitical tensions ease, how energy prices evolve, and whether upcoming data reinforce signs of labor-market softening; together, these will shape expectations for Fed policy as investors weigh the balance between cooling growth and sticky inflation.
The Investment Management Group at Duncan Williams Asset Management is led by a team with extensive experience in investment management, financial planning, and client service. President David Scully, CFA®, CFP®, has more than 20 years of experience and is active in Memphis civic organizations. Chief Investment Officer Kyle Gowen, CFA®, CFP®, oversees investment strategy and is engaged with the local community. Investment Analyst Jack Eason, CFA®, provides research and supports charitable initiatives. The IMG team is committed to professional standards, client service, and community involvement. No statement is intended as an offer of investment advice or a guarantee of future results.
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